Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Or Maybe Not...

Argh! The calculations I discussed in my last post may have been based on some faulty assumptions about how sire statistics are reported. Can anybody answer the following question...When BRIS presents statistics on 'leading second crop sires', are they including data only on the horses that are actually part of the sire's second crop, or data on both the first and second crop children of sires whose second crop are currently racing? I had assumed that it's the former, but after looking over the data some more I'm thinking it must be the latter since it doesn't seem like ANY horses have more starters and winners in their 'second crop' year than their 'first crop' year. If so, that's incredibly frustrating and is almost certainly going to mean that research in this area will involve paying for a substantial amount of data and doing a lot more work than I had anticipated. Why does it always seem like BRIS and Equineline go out of their way to present their data in a way that makes it useless for any serious research?

5 comments:

Winston...not really said...

I think it is the total number of runners from all crops. If you look at the list of established sires, their numbers are in the hundreds so I just guessed that is how they do it across the board.

Proud Citizen, who is the leading 2nd crop sire, has something like 123 runners in his 2nd crop runners and 50something in his first. I don't think he suddenly bred that many more mares from one season to the next.

The Jockey Club is all about restricting information and charging as much as they can for it.

Alex said...

Winston - Unfortunately I'm almost sure you're right. The restrictions on the data made available are almost enough to make me throw up my hands and admit defeat. The only thing preventing it is that the tougher it is to gather the relevant information, the more valuable the edge it will ultimately provide to those who are able to obtain it and analyze it properly.

Winston...not really said...

Jessica at raceday360 has an idea for something very much like that and you might want to contact her to see if she could use your help.

Frank said...

Alex,

It's a composite of all runners from both crops, as you've surmised.

Winston...not really said...

If you go to this link: http://www.jessicachapel.com/railbird/archives/002001the_best_surrogates.html,

In the comments section after all the debate, she mentions that she has worked out a business plan for something like this.

It's in her comment, third from the bottom, in the third paragraph. It might not be what you are thinking of but it then again.