Friday, November 14, 2008

Dehere

In the True Nicks Blog at The Bloodhorse today they discuss how the entire future of Dehere as a sire was changed when his daughter Arrested Dreams lost the 1998 Matron by a nose. The loss cost Dehere the chance to be the leading freshman sire, and ultimately probably resulted in his being exported to Japan (and not getting to cover the same quality of mares that he would have) before his value as a sire was recognized several years later. I can't really comment on whether this analysis of events is accurate, but if so it would show how unbelievably superficial a lot of the pedigree analysis in the thoroughbred industry, and how bad the tools that many use for major financial decisions are. Does anyone REALLY believe that an evaluation that comes up with a substantially different answer depending on which horse finishes a nose ahead in one race has any possible predictive value for the future?

3 comments:

Winston...not really said...

"...but if so it would show how unbelievably superficial a lot of the pedigree analysis in the thoroughbred industry"

You said it yourself.

Alex said...

Right. That's really the whole basis for my Thoroughmetrics business. That the decisions being made by so many people are so bad, that if we can find a better way of evaluating things, thoroughbred ownership can be profitable despite the fact that the industry as a whole is a tremendously 'negative sum game' at the moment.

Scot T. Gillies said...

Isn't it amazing what the bob of a head in a single race can mean? It's difficult to overcome human nature, though, and see things as they really are. In Dehere's case, it meant an ill-advised gap in his North American breeding opportunities.

Sometimes, though, the Thoroughbred industry DOES look at the bigger picture. I'm pleased to see that breeders seem to have overlooked Hard Spun's "bridesmaid" record, and are treating him like the top-quality sire he should be.