Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Breeders Cup Handicapping
In general I'm trying to focus on the inefficiencies in the thoroughbred industry that owners can take advantage of. Beggars can't be choosers though, and sometimes the inefficiencies aren't where we want them to be. On big days for international racing, such as the Dubai World Cup or the Breeders Cup, there can be some great opportunities. For example, in his race in Dubai earlier this year, Notional was the favorite for an extended period of time, and ended up going off as the 2nd choice. Keep in mind that this was a Grade 2 quality horse, who was completely out of form at the time, running on grass, against many of the best turf milers in the World. Obviously, his presence and odds should have made it pretty easy to find good value on other horses. With so many Europeans horses aiming for the Breeders Cup this year, its likely that similar values will exist...particularly if you have access to betting pools in both the UK and the US. There may even be races where you can bet on every horse in the race and be guaranteed a profit. Bet on the US horses in the UK, and the UK horses in the US, and proportion the bets so that they all return a similar amount.