Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Average Starts: Mean vs. Median

In general, medians tend to be a better predictor of the future than means (averages), since they're not as influenced by extreme outliers.  In many cases, the median value can even be a better predictor of the future mean than the mean itself.  While I don't think that's the case with average starts per horse, it's worth noting that the median horse in my database has only 12 starts in their career (compared to the mean of 16).  It's not surprising to see the median lower than the mean when looking at a metric that has an upper limit so far above the values for most members of the population.

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