I’d like to get some suggestions from readers on a study I’ll be starting on in a few weeks. Basically I’ll be looking for factors that influence the likelihood of a claiming horse eventually competing successfully in allowance or stakes races. If you have any suggestions for factors to look at in the study, please let me know!
Some of the factors I’m already planning to study include:
1. Age – I assume a younger horse has a better chance of substantial improvement than an older horse. I’d like to measure just how much better.
2. Experience – I assume the fewer previous races a horse has had, the better chance that it has some hidden abilities. I might also try to factor in its experience on a variety of surfaces and tracks.
3. Sex – The sex of a horse could affect the likelihood of it being put into claimers despite having the potential for improvement.
4. Trainer – I’d actually prefer to look at owner/trainer combinations, except that I think most wouldn’t have large enough sample sizes to learn much of value. I’d guess that some trainers aren’t as good at recognizing a horse’s future potential than others, and that some may enter their horses more aggressively at the lower claiming levels in order to try to win races.
5. Breeding – I’d guess that the higher the sire’s stud fee, the more of a dud the owner and trainer have to consider the horse before they’ll enter them in mid and low level claiming races.
Anybody have any other suggestions?