tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6613928904051586034.post7170856744378593917..comments2023-04-28T04:16:12.900-04:00Comments on The ThoroughMetrics Blog: Unique OpportunityUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6613928904051586034.post-66301437513704310262008-06-11T22:30:00.000-04:002008-06-11T22:30:00.000-04:00The only issue with the Kelly criterion is that yo...The only issue with the Kelly criterion is that you have to have demonstrated your edge. <BR/>This is of course in hindsight but breeding and missed training due to the quarter crack significantly played a role in his loss. Fair odds on BB should have been somewhere near 7/5.Wind Gathererhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08374251665158760423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6613928904051586034.post-83612774133059401422008-05-30T18:16:00.000-04:002008-05-30T18:16:00.000-04:00I like your reasoning and I love Big Brown. But I...I like your reasoning and I love Big Brown. But I want a bigger edge to get involved -- something like 2-1, which will never happen. I got my last 2-1 on him in the Derby.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for posting that link to the Casino Drive debut race over on Left At the Gate. Nice horse. More reason to just watch this one and enjoy.steve in nchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04061356872686618093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6613928904051586034.post-80260060731993560372008-05-29T17:46:00.000-04:002008-05-29T17:46:00.000-04:00I think you have good, sound reasons for betting B...I think you have good, sound reasons for betting Big Brown to win but you won't see the generous odds you envision. He likely will go off at 2/5, even as low as 1/5. I think the best way to bet him is to place. Tons of money likely will be bet on Casino Drive to place and he will be passed in the upper stretch by other horses and win up off the board. Check the mutuals in the Preakness.MasterRayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02351356673128795886noreply@blogger.com